Best Bet in Golf Picks and Parlay 07-04-2023- The Bet Club


Welcome to The Bet Club, where another exciting week of golf awaits us. We had yet another win on the PGA Tour last Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It’s quickly becoming one of my favorite tournaments on the schedule, as I correctly picked the winner in both 2022 and 2023. Rickie Fowler, our best bet, emerged victorious for the first time since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. It was a great win at 14/1, and it made for a successful Sunday all around.

With two weeks in the U.K. approaching, starting with the Scottish Open followed by the Open Championship, the field this week at the John Deere Classic is relatively weaker. It presents a big opportunity for players who have been performing well to take their game to the next level and secure a victory, along with all the privileges that come with it.

In the past four weeks, I’ve successfully picked two winners and had a runner-up finish. Additionally, last year, I correctly predicted J.T. Poston to win the John Deere Classic at 55/1, and he went on to lead from start to finish. With such a streak, I’m eager to continue the momentum and provide you with another champion this week.

Best Bet in Golf Pick: TPC Deere Run_What You Need to Know

TPC Deere Run, a par 71 measuring 7,289 yards, is set to deliver another low-scoring tournament. Last year, Poston finished at -21, and in 2021, Lucas Glover claimed the title at -19. The course record was set in 2018 by Michael Kim, who posted an incredible score of -27.

Poston’s victory last year was fueled by his exceptional tee-to-green game, where he gained nearly 3.5 strokes on the field, along with his excellent approach and short game. It’s worth noting that he came off a runner-up finish the week before at the Travelers Championship (the schedule was slightly different last year compared to this year).

TPC Deere Run offers various opportunities for players with different skill sets. While it’s not overly challenging, the course features elevation changes, undulating fairways, and tight doglegs, requiring players to utilize their entire repertoire of shots to secure those crucial birdies. The three par-5 holes serve as scoring opportunities, with the second hole consistently ranking as the easiest on the course year after year.

Tree-lined fairways demand accuracy, although they are wider than the PGA Tour average. Players should be cautious of the Kentucky blue-grass rough, which is known to be one of the most challenging to play from. Setting up birdie chances and capitalizing on them will be crucial, and the large greens at TPC Deere Run make that task easier. Therefore, I’ll be focusing on approach play, birdie average, and solid ball-strikers when making my picks.

Knox’s Knockout John Deere Classic Golf Picks

  1. Denny McCarthy (+1600): McCarthy has been on the verge of victory for quite some time, and his performance at the Memorial a few weeks ago came close to fulfilling that potential. He has recorded 10 top-20 finishes this season, with 5 of them placing him within the top 8. McCarthy is one of the best putters on the tour, ranking fourth in strokes gained: putting and first inside 10 feet. He has consistently gained strokes on the greens since April and finished T6 at the John Deere Classic last year. McCarthy is a popular favorite to win this week.
  2. Adam Schenk (+3300): Schenk’s success this season has come in waves. He has achieved two runner-up finishes in 2023, along with two T7s, one of which was last week in Detroit. After missing the cut at the U.S. Open and the Travelers Championship, Schenk found his groove last week, finishing at -20. He has a strong tournament history at the John Deere Classic, placing T4 in 2021 and T6 in 2019. Taking into account the “externals” such as weddings and personal milestones, Schenk recently purchased a new John Deere mini tractor and became a father. Perhaps this is the week where Schenk will make the most of those positive vibes and secure a victory.
  1. Stephan Jaeger (+4000): Jaeger has quietly put together a solid season of golf and currently sits at #67 in the FedExCup standings. With six top-25 finishes this season, including a tie for ninth last week where he finished his final round with six consecutive birdies, Jaeger enters the John Deere Classic with confidence. While his putting has been the weaker aspect of his game, he didn’t putt particularly well last week and still secured a top-10 finish. With a lot to play for, Jaeger has the potential to seize this opportunity.
  2. Carson Young (+12500): Young started his rookie season on the PGA Tour with a series of missed cuts. However, a third-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open in May ignited a positive change. Since then, Young has recorded five top-25 finishes and excels in hitting consecutive fairways, a crucial skill to navigate the challenging rough at TPC Deere Run. His strong approach game, particularly from 200 yards out, adds to his potential for success.

John Deere Classic Prop Golf Bets

  1. Eric Cole top-10 finish (+400): Cole has been consistently performing well this season, with eight top-25 finishes, including a runner-up at the Honda Classic and a T6 at the recent Canadian Open. His putting has been trending positively, as he currently ranks second on the tour in overall putting average. With a course set-up that suits his game, Cole has the potential to achieve a top-10 finish.
  2. Stephan Jaeger top European (+475): While I’ve already picked Jaeger as an outright winner this week, I also believe he has a good chance of being the top European player in the field. He will face competition from Ludvig Aberg, but given Jaeger’s current form and excellent play, he has a strong opportunity to claim this title.

(Note: The odds mentioned are valid at the time of writing.)

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