Best MLB Bet for 07-05-23: 6-1 in last 7 tries- The Bet Club

Welcome to another wonderful Wednesday of sports. We have a busy MLB slate today, with plenty of betting action to keep us entertained. Fireworks across the MLB slate yesterday as Major League Baseball took center stage on America’s Independence Day, and our handicapping team was on the ball once again as we hit a number of winners.

Hungover at work? Partied a little too hard on America’s birthday? No worries, we have 15 MLB games on Wednesday, including Orioles vs Yankees, Mets vs Diamondbacks, and A’s vs Tigers on FS1. I have three ways to make you feel better with my three best bet for today’s MLB slate. It’s a huge slate today with action starting early in Houston and finishing in LA with my best bet of the day play. However, I’m also targeting games in Detroit and Boston for my bets. Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB Parlay Picks for all of today’s games.

Best MLB Bet of the Day

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates 10:10 pm ET

This is a perfect opportunity for Bobby Miller to bounce back after a pair of disappointing outings. Miller was fantastic in his first four starts at the Major League level (0.78 ERA), and his xERA is nearly a full point lower than his actual ERA number. Given that the Pirates are 24th in SLG and OPS this season, I’m expecting some positive regression and a strong outing from the young Dodger phenom at home.

The Dodgers offense has been in boom-or-bust mode recently, but they’re typically going to get consistent production from the top of their lineup on most nights. This unit should tee off against Pirates starter Luis Ortiz, who sits in the bottom 5 percentile in xBA, xERA, xwOBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage. If Los Angeles plays up to its potential, this should be a lopsided victory.

MLB: Oakland Athletics First 5 Innings Team Total Under 1.5 (-115)

The Oakland Athletics haven’t been performing well this season, and their struggles continue when facing left-handed pitching. Since June 1st, the A’s have a 49 wRC+ against lefties, placing them well below average. In fact, they rank 30th in various offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Their struggles were evident in the previous game against Tarik Skubal, who threw four hitless innings and struck out six Oakland batters.

Facing the Athletics today is the Detroit Tigers’ left-handed pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez. After a month-long absence due to a finger injury, Rodriguez is returning to the mound. He made a rehab start to prepare for this game, throwing 4.1 scoreless innings and allowing only three hits. Rodriguez has been impressive in the Majors, boasting a 1.72 ERA in April and a 2.03 ERA in May. At home, he has a 1.65 ERA with a low batting average allowed. While the A’s might manage to score a lucky run against him, it’s doubtful they’ll be able to do it twice.

MLB: Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox First 3 Innings Under 3.5 (-134) 2 units

Don’t be intimidated by the high total in this matchup because the starting pitching duel is fantastic. Jon Gray will take the mound for the Texas Rangers, while Brayan Bello will counter him for the Boston Red Sox. We’re leaning towards the first 3 innings under. Bello has been a profitable target in this timeframe, with the first 3 innings under going 6-1 in his last 7 starts (the only loss was by half a run).

The reason we choose the first 3 innings under instead of the first 5 innings or full game is to avoid the lineup facing Bello multiple times. His performance has shown that he is more effective the first time through the order, with a lower batting average allowed. Bello has been exceptional in his last 11 starts, boasting a 2.33 ERA and allowing more than 2 earned runs only once during that span. In June, he had a stellar month, posting a 2.14 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. His ground-ball percentage and command make him a tough matchup for the powerful Rangers lineup.

But it’s not just Bello who makes this under appealing. Jon Gray has been reliable for the Rangers this season, particularly on the road, where he has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.885 WHIP, and a .180 batting average allowed. In his last four road starts, Gray has only given up 3 total runs in the first 3 innings. The total set by FanDuel at 3.5 is quite favorable, and if you can find it at 2.5, it’s still worth a play, albeit at a reduced stake.

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