Expert MLB Best Bet Picks 08-22-23: Rodon’s Troubles


As Major League Baseball kicks off new series today, fans are in for an action-packed lineup featuring star pitchers such as Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, and Zac Gallen taking the mound. Dive into my carefully crafted MLB best bets for Tuesday, and remember to explore our comprehensive MLB predictions covering all of today’s games.

Best MLB Bet of the Day

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates ML over St. Louis Cardinals 7:05 pm ET

In this matchup, Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright’s tumultuous season is a focal point. Sporting a 3-8 record accompanied by a daunting 8.42 ERA and 2.01 WHIP, Wainwright’s August has been marred by a nightmarish performance—surrendering 22 hits and 18 runs across 10 innings over 3 starts. These numbers from a starting pitcher are difficult to overcome. On the other side, Pirates starter Johan Oviedo holds a 6-13 record, a 4.55 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. Notably, Oviedo held the Cardinals to just 1 run across 7 innings in a prior encounter this season. Given Wainwright’s struggles, favoring the Pirates seems prudent.

MLB Pick: Washington Nationals F5 +0.5 (+106) over New York Yankees

A seemingly unlikely scenario a few months ago, the Nationals’ Josiah Gray takes on the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon. Rodon, touted as a significant free-agent acquisition, has failed to live up to expectations in his first season with a dismal 1-4 record, a 7.33 ERA, and a 5.40 xERA after 6 starts. Various factors contribute to Rodon’s decline from his White Sox and Giants ace status, including health concerns and a change in his fastball’s effectiveness. Contrasting this, Josiah Gray, while not an ace, outperforms Rodon with a 3.96 ERA after 24 starts. Despite Gray’s mixed performances, this matchup aligns well for him. Facing a struggling Yankees lineup, Gray’s reliance on his slider—a pitch that baffles the Yankees post-All-Star break—further reinforces his advantage. The goal here is for the Nationals to be level or ahead after 5 innings, and given Rodon’s recent form, there’s valuable potential in this play.

MLB Pick: San Diego Padres F5 -0.5 (-115) over Miami Marlins

Highlighting another intriguing duel, Jesus Luzardo and Blake Snell share the spotlight. While Snell has been a stellar performer, Luzardo’s early promise has dimmed. Once a standout with an 8-5 record and a 3.29 ERA, Luzardo’s post-All-Star Game performance has taken a dive with a 0-3 record, a 7.39 ERA, and a 1.89 WHIP across 6 starts. Luzardo’s susceptibility to home runs this month—8 in just 12.1 innings—marks a stark contrast to his pre-break prowess. While the Padres’ performance hasn’t met expectations, they’ve demonstrated proficiency against left-handed pitching, currently ranking first in batting average and second in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+ post-All-Star break. Snell’s reliable consistency and the Marlins’ weak point against left-handers provide grounds for a Padres victory within the first 5 innings.

MLB Prop Bets for August 22: A Glimpse into Tough Matchups

As the stage welcomes a host of young arms and rookies, a closer look reveals betting value in well-established players. Two prop bets draw attention for their enticing odds.

MLB Pick: Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) over 4.5 hits allowed (-121)

Jesus Luzardo’s once-promising season has soured post-All-Star Game, with a 7.39 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and a concerning batted-ball profile. His regression against both left- and right-handed batters aligns with the Padres’ prowess against southpaws. While Miami’s offense received reinforcements, Luzardo’s struggle to quell hits positions the Padres well for this prop.

MLB Pick: Lucas Giolito (Angels) over 4.5 hits allowed (-115)

Lucas Giolito’s stint with the Angels hasn’t yielded desired results, as his recent outings reflect. With a high hard-hit rate and slugging against both sides of the plate, Giolito faces a challenge against a balanced Reds lineup. Given Giolito’s struggle on the road and his recent performance, surpassing 4.5 hits allowed appears likely.

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