MLB Best Bet Picks for Saturday 09-09-23: Exploring Prop Picks, YRFI & NRFI and Parlay Bet

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No Need to Watch the Entire Game – YRFI/NRFI Strategy

Tired of sitting through an entire baseball game to see your bet unfold? If so, the YRFI/NRFI market might be your new favorite betting avenue. Set aside a mere 10 to 15 minutes to observe the first inning and then forget about the remaining eight. Today’s MLB slate boasts all 30 teams in action, commencing in New York with the Yankees and concluding in Los Angeles with the Angels.

Today’s Best Bets in MLB

Let’s delve right into it, and don’t forget to peruse our MLB picks encompassing side and total predictions for every game today.

MLB Pick_Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-125)

The Baltimore Orioles have been on a scorching offensive streak lately, showing no signs of cooling off in their commanding 11-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox last night. Baltimore amassed an impressive 14 hits while drawing 9 walks during the game. Their top 3 hitters combined for a 6-for-12 performance, contributing 4 RBI’s and 4 walks. The Orioles’ offense has tallied 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games, indicating a likelihood of another quick start today. They’ll face left-hander Chris Sale, who, over the past few seasons, has been plagued by injuries, limiting him to just 131.0 innings in the last 4 years.

Although this season marks Sale’s healthiest period in a while, he holds a career-worst 4.46 ERA. His 3.71 xERA suggests some tough breaks, and his 29.0% strikeout rate remains well above average. However, the Orioles have had his number this season. In two starts against them, Sale surrendered 7 earned runs in just 3.0 innings and 5 earned runs in 5.0 innings. Furthermore, Adley Rutschman boasts a .400 batting average against Sale, while Anthony Santander holds a .300 average. In September, Rutschman boasts a .419 OBP, while Santander leads the offense with a .424 OBP.

For the Orioles, Jack Flaherty takes the mound in his sixth start since joining the team from the St. Louis Cardinals before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Flaherty hasn’t shone since his arrival in Baltimore, posting a 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, albeit in a small sample size. On a broader scale, Flaherty has struggled significantly in the first inning this season, owning a 6.48 first-inning ERA across 25 starts, giving up first-inning runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Boston was relatively quiet yesterday, scoring just 2 runs on 4 hits and 5 total baserunners. However, Boston’s starter, Kyle Bradish, has been nearly impeccable since mid-June. Betting on some first-inning runs at Fenway Park today and fading the starting pitching seems like a reasonable move.

MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: YRFI (-110)

The Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers matchup may not be the most enticing on Saturday’s slate, given that both teams have been out of the postseason race for a while. Nevertheless, this game offers intriguing betting potential, particularly in the YRFI/NRFI market. The White Sox currently rank 25th in runs scored, with the Tigers occupying the 29th spot. This trend has continued into September, with both teams combining for a mere 54 runs this month, just one more than the Minnesota Twins.

Despite the lackluster offensive production, we see value in the proposition of over 0.5 runs in the first inning. In the top half of the first, Tarik Skubal will start for the Tigers, boasting a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his 11th start. Just 6 days ago, Skubal faced the White Sox, allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks across 7.0 innings. However, both runs occurred in the first inning of that game, with leadoff batter Tim Anderson batting .550 against Skubal in 20 career at-bats.

The real action might unfold in the bottom half of the inning when Jose Urena takes the mound. Urena began the season with the Colorado Rockies but was released due to poor performances. Across 5 April starts, he pitched to a dismal 9.82 ERA and 2.24 WHIP, completing 5 full innings in just one of those starts. After being released by the Rockies, he briefly joined the Nationals before the White Sox signed him to a minor league contract on August 7. In four starts with the Charlotte Knights, Urena posted a 3.38 ERA, but how that translates into his first White Sox start remains uncertain. Given Urena’s struggles with the Rockies and the Tigers’ patient lineup, we favor the Tigers until Urena can prove himself with solid innings.

MLB Prop Best Bets

MLB Pick: Cristian Javier (HOU) under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115)

Cristian Javier began the season strongly for Houston, with a 2.90 ERA and a 17.8% K-BB% in his first 14 starts. Despite the success, underlying metrics hinted at potential regression, with a 4.35 SIERA. However, Javier’s performance took a downturn over his last 12 starts. His hard-hit rate increased by 5.6%, his K% fell

by 4.6%, and his BB% surged by 6.2%. His 7.15 ERA, 6.45 FIP, and 5.71 SIERA in this stretch rank among the league’s worst. In 9 of those outings, he pitched 5 or fewer innings.

Javier struggles to get ahead early in counts, with a first-pitch strike rate of 54.7%, well below the league average. This leads to long counts, with his 4.20 pitches per plate appearance ranking third most among qualified pitchers. In his last six starts since August began, Javier’s opponents averaged 4.43 pitches per plate appearance. His recent struggles are reflected in his swinging strike rate, down to 11.1%, and even lower at 10.7% in the last 12 starts.

Javier also struggles to generate ground balls, with his 26.5% fly ball rate ranking in the 1st percentile in MLB. His 10.0% barrel rate on fly balls has led to trouble, allowing at least 1 home run in seven straight starts and 10 of his last 11. The Padres, while hitting into more ground balls than the league average, are a patient lineup. They have the third-lowest swing rate in the last 30 days and possess the third-lowest chase rate, coupled with the fifth-highest chase contact rate. Facing a challenging matchup, Javier might not have a lengthy outing, making the under 15.5 outs recorded a viable bet.

MLB Pick: Logan Webb (SF) over 5.5 Strikeouts (-117)

Logan Webb has a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies today. The Rockies’ offense has thrived at home, thanks to the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field. However, their away performance has been dismal this season, particularly against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days, when facing right-handers on the road, the Rockies rank 27th in AVG, 29th in BB%, 30th in wOBA, 30th in K%, and boast a wRC+ of 59. Webb, with his 30.7% K% across a sample of 336 PA, is poised to exploit this.

The Rockies’ plate discipline has been questionable in the last month, with a 37% chase rate on pitches outside the zone, the highest mark during that period. Their chase contact rate is third worst, and their zone contact rate is second lowest. With a 14.7% swinging strike rate and 30.0% CSW% in the last month, Webb is set up for success. Facing this lineup previously, he recorded a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. Webb’s strong home performance, where he holds opponents to a 2.51 ERA, along with his ability to pitch deep into games, provides a solid foundation for a bet on over 5.5 strikeouts.

MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (+100)

Chris Sale remains a formidable pitcher, but the Baltimore Orioles present an attractive betting opportunity in this matchup. The Orioles have excelled against left-handed pitching, ranking fifth in AVG and tenth in wOBA with a 122 wRC+ in the last 30 days. They are well-acquainted with Sale, with active Oriole batters posting a .295 batting average and .500 SLG with 7 home runs in 155 PA against him. Sale struggled in two matchups with the Orioles earlier this season, conceding 12 earned runs in just 8 innings.

While Sale’s health has improved since returning from the IL, his inconsistency within games remains a concern. His 10.1% barrel rate and 8.1% BB% are indicators of potential run prevention issues. Despite reaching the 100-pitch threshold in his last start, he could only complete 5 innings and face 19 batters. He has yet to face more than 23 batters since May 20, which could pose issues when he’s overextended. Baltimore’s run-scoring chances may increase once Sale exits the game, as the Red Sox bullpen has struggled recently. In the last 30 days, they rank 21st in ERA, 19th in FIP, and 25th in WHIP. Playing in Fenway Park with favorable hitting conditions raises Baltimore’s offensive potential further. Ballpark Pal projects Fenway for a 22% boost in extra-base hits and a 14% boost in overall run scoring. Expect the Orioles to build on their 11-run performance in the series opener and score at least 5 runs in this game.

MLB Saturday Parlay at +1002 Odds: Cubs and Orioles in Focus

Friday’s MLB action delivered excitement, with division races and wild-card battles intensifying day by day. In just a month, we’ll be immersed in playoff baseball, making this buildup an exhilarating experience. As you prepare for a fantastic September sports day, take care of your chores early and relish the games. If you’re looking for some betting action, check out our MLB mega parlay at +1002 odds below. Also, explore our MLB predictions for picks on all games today.

MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+145)

The Chicago Cubs have been on an impressive roll for almost two months, but the Arizona Diamondbacks briefly slowed their momentum by winning the first two games of their series. On Saturday, the Cubs will send Justin Steele to the mound, making them a formidable opponent for the Diamondbacks. Steele boasts a remarkable 16-3 record with a 2.55 ERA, and he’s coming off an outstanding performance: 8 innings, 2 hits, no runs, and 12 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks face an uphill battle against Steele.

Steele’s prowess aside, the Cubs have not suffered three consecutive losses since July 1-3. Given their form over the past two months, avoiding a third consecutive loss should be well within their capabilities. The Cubs, in good form and hosting what feels like a playoff-like game to avoid a third straight loss, are poised for a spirited performance.

MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML over Boston Red Sox & Over 10.5 (+350)

The Baltimore Orioles are riding a six-game winning streak and have won eight of their last ten games, while the Boston Red Sox are on a five-game losing streak at home and have posted a 3-8 record over their last 11 games. Despite these trends, the Red Sox are favored on the money line, presenting an enticing opportunity for a bet on the Orioles with plus-money odds. The Orioles dominated the first game of this series with an 11-2 victory and continue to shine.

Both teams have been trending towards the over lately. Baltimore has seen the over hit in their last six games and in five of their last six road games. Boston, on the other hand, has seen the total go over in 17 of their last 20 games and in six of their last seven games against Baltimore. With Jack Flaherty starting for the Orioles and Chris Sale for the Red Sox, the over has hit in four of their combined last six starts. Recent trends and performances indicate that the over 10.5 runs is a strong possibility.

Note: All odds mentioned are available at the time of the initial post.

**Disclaimer: This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Please bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.**

Please note that odds and availability may change, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. Note: All bets should be made responsibly. The opinions and predictions provided are based on available data and are intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of sports betting. The decision to place bets or refrain from betting is solely the responsibility of the bettor. If you experience issues with gambling, please seek assistance.

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