MLB Best Bet Picks for Thursday, 09-14-23: Props, YRFI & NRFI and our expert Top Bets


As the week unfolds in Major League Baseball, a packed 9-game slate awaits us on this Thursday. Even though it’s a midweek day, baseball enthusiasts can still get their dose of MLB action, and as the saying goes, “Best Bets are best bets,” regardless of the day.

MLB Pick_AL East Showdown: Rays vs. Orioles

In the AL East, the race for supremacy continues with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles going head-to-head. Unlike the NL East, the AL East offers an exciting battle, with Baltimore holding a 2-game lead over Tampa Bay. This crucial 4-game series kicks off tonight at 7:15 pm ET on FOX. Additionally, we have the Yankees facing off against the Red Sox, and the Rangers taking on the Blue Jays. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions.

Yesterday: Braves Clinch Division Title

While it may not officially be fall yet, some MLB teams are already celebrating division titles. The Atlanta Braves secured their sixth consecutive NL East crown with a 4-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. As for our betting success at The Bet Club, we’re riding a 4-0 streak in YRFI/NRFI wagers following a clean 2-0 sweep last night.

Best Bets in MLB Today:


If you prefer not to sit through an entire baseball game waiting for your bet to pay off, the NRFI/YRFI market might be your preferred betting strategy. Set aside around 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning, and you’re set for the rest of the game. Thursday offers a 10-game slate, starting in Pittsburgh and concluding in Colorado. So, let’s dive right into it and don’t forget to explore our MLB picks for the spread and total in every game today.

MLB Pick_Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: NRFI (-140)

Our first game takes us to Citi Field, featuring a premier pitching matchup between the New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game pits Mets’ ace Kodai Senga against D-backs’ hurler Merrill Kelly. Both starting pitchers have enjoyed outstanding seasons, ranking among the top 4 in the National League in ERA. Starting with the home team, Senga has been a phenomenal addition to the Mets’ rotation, boasting a 3.07 ERA through 26 starts, with an even more impressive 2.53 ERA over his last 11 starts, nine of which qualify as quality outings. Senga strikes out nearly 29% of the batters he faces and boasts a 6.2% barrel rate, with his only downside being an 11.2% walk rate.

Kelly has been equally effective for the Diamondbacks, sporting a career-best 3.16 ERA across 26 starts and 154.0 innings. Like Senga, Kelly excels in striking out hitters (26.4%) but tends to issue more walks (9.1%). Despite their propensity for walks, both pitchers have excelled at limiting runs this season, making a scoreless first inning a favorable bet. Back two of the NL’s top pitchers in what promises to be a low-scoring affair on both sides.

MLB Pick_Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: NRFI (-120)

Next, we head to Toronto for another intriguing pitching matchup in the final game of a 4-game series. The Rangers are on the cusp of a sweep, riding a 5-game win streak and looking to maintain their dominance. On the other hand, the Blue Jays can ill afford to be swept at home by a team they’re chasing in the AL Wild Card standings, currently trailing the Seattle Mariners by just one game for the third and final wild card spot. Toronto turns to ace Kevin Gausman, who has had another stellar season in his second year with the Blue Jays. Across 28 starts and 167.1 innings, Gausman boasts a 3.28 ERA, ranking fifth in the AL. Gausman previously found success against the Rangers this season, allowing just one earned run over 6.0 innings.

The Rangers counter with right-handed veteran Nathan Eovaldi, making his third start since returning from the injured list due to a right forearm strain. While Eovaldi hasn’t pitched enough innings (127.1) to qualify for any AL pitching stats leaders, his 2.90 ERA across 21 starts would rank among the best in baseball. Eovaldi last pitched 2.1 scoreless innings against the Oakland Athletics, though he was pulled after 47 pitches due to pitching on just three days’ rest. With Eovaldi returning on four days’ rest and Toronto’s struggling lineup, a scoreless first inning is a plausible outcome.

Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Adley Rutschman

Even though Thursday Night Football commands attention, we’re not ones to overlook value, and we’ve identified an intriguing market with substantial potential on this evening’s somewhat limited MLB slate. Here’s our top player prop bet for Thursday, but don’t forget to peruse our MLB predictions for today’s matchups.

MLB Pick: dley Rutschman (BAL) over 0.5 Singles (-120)

The Baltimore Orioles find themselves on a two-game losing streak, both losses coming against struggling starting pitchers. They now face a critical series against a divisional rival, and for a successful rebound, their leadoff man, Adley Rutschman, must set the stage for a formidable lineup. Rutschman has an advantageous matchup against Rays’ starting pitcher Aaron Civale.

The value in this market is based on Rutschman’s consistency in cashing this specific prop. Since August 1, Rutschman has maintained an impressive 136 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home, with a low 6.3% walk rate, a .136 ISO, and a middle-of-the-pack 30.0% HardHit%. In this 16-game span, he has recorded 15 hits, with 12 of them being singles.

Civale possesses a low 6.7% walk rate but has faced challenges against left-handed hitters, evident in his 34.8% HardHit% this season. His primary weapon against lefties is a curveball, but since August 1, Rutschman has posted an impressive .488 xBA against right-handed curveballs.

Even if Rutschman switches to hitting right-handed against Civale, his recent numbers offer a similar level of encouragement. Since August 1, Rutschman has delivered a 133 wRC+ and a .137 ISO against left-handed pitchers. We

recommend playing this prop up to -125 on your sportsbook.

Our YRFI/NRFI Bets Are on a 4-0 Streak!

MLB Picks and Parlay for September 14, 2023

On the penultimate Thursday of the MLB regular season, we’re treated to some exciting matchups. Amid a robust appetizer slate for the upcoming weekend, key games feature the Rangers visiting the Blue Jays and the Rays facing off against the Orioles. Other teams in action, albeit with less playoff significance, include the Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Giants. The rest are merely going through the motions, either securing playoff spots or booking tee times. Thursday promises to be an exhilarating day of baseball, potentially resulting in significant shifts in the standings. If you’re looking to add some excitement to the games, check out our MLB parlay with +1088 odds below. Additionally, explore our MLB predictions for picks on every game today.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)

Rangers ML & Over 8.5 (+340)

MLB Parlay Odds: +1088

MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 over New York Mets (+170)

The Diamondbacks have grappled with inconsistency lately, which makes this part of the season incredibly vital. Despite their struggles, they find themselves tied for the 3rd wild card spot in the NL. After an impressive series win against a red-hot Cubs team, they’ve carried their momentum into this series. Although they won the opener, the Mets have since secured two victories. Arizona needs a win to remain competitive in the wild card race, and they are the stronger team with a sense of urgency.

Thursday’s pitching matchup features Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks and Kodai Senga for the Mets. While Senga has pitched well recently, he hasn’t secured a win in three solid starts due to lackluster Mets’ offense or bullpen struggles. Kelly, on the other hand, has performed admirably and benefits from a more consistent supporting cast than the Mets can offer. Expect the Diamondbacks to push hard for a crucial victory.

MLB Pick: Texas Rangers ML over Toronto Blue Jays & Over 8.5 (+340)

The Rangers have dominated the first three games of this 4-game series, outscoring the Blue Jays 26-3. Texas has been relentless, while the Blue Jays have been unable to find answers. The Rangers are listed at +130 on the money line, offering fantastic value in a straight-up bet, let alone as part of a Same Game Parlay with higher odds. There’s no indication that the Blue Jays are prepared to reverse their fortunes. While Toronto boasts a solid record over the past couple of weeks, their opponents have included Cleveland, Washington, Colorado, Oakland, and Kansas City. This week, they’ve run into a formidable team and suddenly appear out of sorts.

Thursday’s game features a promising starting pitching matchup. However, the over/under hasn’t mattered for these teams lately, even when there were strong pitching matchups. The over has hit consistently for both squads prior to this series. In the Rangers’ last 11 games, the total has gone over 10 times, while the over has hit in 12 of the Blue Jays’ last 17 games. Head-to-head, the over is 4-1 overall and 6-1 when the Rangers are involved. Once again, there’s no indication that this trend is about to change.

Please note that odds and availability may change, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. Note: All bets should be made responsibly. The opinions and predictions provided are based on available data and are intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of sports betting. The decision to place bets or refrain from betting is solely the responsibility of the bettor. If you experience issues with gambling, please seek assistance.

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