MLB Best Bets, Picks and Parlay for 09-11-23: Orioles Leading the Way

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As another week of baseball action unfolds, we reflect on a super Sunday that saw our daily parlay hit at +467 odds and an impressive 10-5 record on picks. Our MLB Best Bet for the Rangers’ win against the A’s came through, and we also went 1-0 on MLB props. Notably, the Brewers-Yankees game turned into a thrilling marathon, with both teams scoring late, and the Yankees clinching victory in the 13th inning. Amid the buzz of Monday Night Football, let’s not forget about baseball. With a substantial 15-game slate ahead, here’s my 3-team MLB mega parlay offering over 11/1 odds, along with Best Bets NRFI/YRFI (No Run First Inning/Yes Run First Inning) and Prop Bet picks from Sportsbook.

MLB Picks and Parlay Today: +1126 Odds

Here’s the 3-team MLB mega parlay for Monday:

  1. Orioles -1.5 (+125)
  2. Yankees ML (+108)
  3. Rays-Twins Alternate Total Under 6.5 (+162)

Now, let’s dive into each pick within the parlay.

MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+125) over St. Louis Cardinals

The Orioles have emerged as a dominant force in the American League, transforming from a lineup and bullpen-driven team in the first half of the season to a well-rounded unit. The addition of Jack Flaherty to their starting rotation at the trade deadline boosted their pitching. Young pitcher Dean Kremer, in particular, has shone since the All-Star break, with a 2.86 ERA since mid-July and an impressive August performance.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled throughout the season, especially with their starting rotation and bullpen both ranking among the bottom 10 in the league. Dakota Hudson, who has fluctuated between starting and bullpen roles, has faced recent struggles, allowing 11 runs and 16 hits in his last three outings. Expect the Orioles to secure a multi-run win in this matchup.

MLB Pick: New York Yankees ML (+108) over Boston Red Sox

The Yankees and Red Sox find themselves in a surprising race to avoid finishing last in the AL East. Despite recent struggles, the Yankees managed a win against the Brewers in extra innings, and they now face the Red Sox with Clarke Schmidt on the mound. Schmidt, although not a standout, has displayed consistency and allowed only 2 runs and 4 hits in 5.2 innings against the Red Sox in a recent start.

Kutter Crawford, pitching for the Red Sox, faces the challenge of an inconsistent bullpen. Despite needing late-inning heroics on Sunday, the Yankees have a good chance to upset the Red Sox in this game.

MLB Pick: Rays vs. Twins Alternate Total Under 6.5 (+162)

Two exceptional pitchers, Sonny Gray and Tyler Glasnow, square off in this matchup. Both Gray and Glasnow boast a 2.98 ERA this season, and they have been dominant since the All-Star break. Glasnow, in particular, has seen his strikeout numbers rise in recent weeks and is now looking healthier than ever.

Gray, the leader of the Twins’ impressive rotation, has been consistent, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts. With such strong pitching on display, expect a lower-scoring game from the first pitch to the last.

Best Bets for Monday MLB


For those who prefer shorter and more focused bets that provide a quick outcome, the YRFI/NRFI (Yes Run First Inning/No Run First Inning) market offers an appealing option. Let’s explore some NRFI picks for Monday’s MLB action.

MLB Pick_Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-125)

A matchup featuring top pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Sonny Gray is likely to result in a scoreless first inning at Target Field. Both Glasnow and Gray hold identical 2.98 ERAs this season, with Glasnow’s high-velocity fastball and impressive strikeout rate complemented by Gray’s focus on contact with effective sweeping pitches. Both pitchers have displayed excellent first-inning effectiveness, making a scoreless start probable.

MLB Pick_Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-125)

The Miami Marlins, still in contention for the NL Wild Card spot, take on the Brewers after an impressive series win against the Phillies. Lefty Jesus Luzardo, following Corbin Burnes’ dominant performance, aims for a scoreless first inning. Luzardo boasts a 3.59 ERA and a 2.25 first-inning ERA, along with a strong strikeout rate. Brandon Woodruff starts for the Brewers and has delivered consistent performances this season. Both pitchers have the potential to keep the first inning free of runs.

Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Monday

If you prefer player-focused prop bets, let’s delve into the top MLB player prop bet of the day.

MLB Pick: Framber Valdez (Astros) Over 18.5 Outs (+110)

Framber Valdez is a reliable pitcher for the Astros, and this prop offers excellent value. Valdez needs just 5 innings to move into the top 5 in innings pitched this season. Despite not relying on high velocity, Valdez efficiently records outs, primarily through groundballs. He ranks highly in groundball percentage and is well-versed in inducing weak contact. Facing an Athletics team that has struggled against lefties lately, Valdez is poised for a strong outing.

MLB Pick: Dean Kremer (Orioles) Over 16.5 Outs (-110)

Dean Kremer, part of a Baltimore Orioles bullpen that has been stretched thin, is set to face the St. Louis Cardinals. With a 4.07 ERA and solid performance at home, Kremer has been consistent. He merely needs to secure two outs in the 6th inning to cash this prop. The Cardinals, who have struggled against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, provide a favorable matchup. Kremer has shown promise in recent starts, making this prop a strong choice.

Enjoy the MLB action and good luck with your bets!

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