MLB Picks and Parlay: Crucial Day in Playoff Race on 09-30-23

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As the regular season nears its end, several MLB divisions and wild card spots are still up for grabs. This creates a day of high-stakes baseball action, even for teams already eliminated. If you’re a fan of a team that’s out of contention, today’s matchups offer a reason to stay engaged with some well-placed wagers.

MLB Picks Saturday 9/30: YRFI & NRFI Best Bets

For those who prefer not to wait through a full 9 innings, one of the quickest bets you can make in an MLB game is whether a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs, and a single swing of the bat can make or break your bet. These bets often provide good value, with short durations of about 15 minutes to either win or lose. Before we delve into these bets, make sure to also explore our MLB picks for all the Saturday games.

MLB Pick: Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox: NRFI (-113)

It might come as a surprise, but Mike Clevinger has emerged as the White Sox’s standout pitcher in recent months. Following a 3.88 ERA in the first half of the season, Clevinger has been outstanding since the All-Star break, boasting a 2.96 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. In his last 11 starts, he has allowed no more than 2 earned runs in 8 outings. Clevinger’s advanced metrics support his success, with hitters managing only a .227 batting average, a .224 xBA, and a 34% hard-hit rate during this period. Crucially for this bet, he has thrown a scoreless first inning in 9 of his last 11 starts in the second half of the season. This improvement can be attributed to Clevinger’s motivation to secure a better contract next season, making this his final opportunity to showcase his talents.

Michael Wacha, despite a shoulder injury sidelining him for over a month, has maintained excellence in the first inning. He has a 3.52 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate in the opening frame this season through 23 starts. With pitching expected to take the spotlight on Saturday, it’s likely that we’ll see a scoreless first inning in this matchup.

MLB Pick: Nationals vs Atlanta Braves: NRFI (-111)

The Atlanta Braves have been the most profitable YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) team in baseball this season, but even then, they score in the first inning only 40% of the time, meaning they are held without a run 60% of the time. Spencer Strider is pitching for the Braves, and despite his recent struggles, he has excelled in the first inning, limiting hitters to a .188 batting average with a .266 on-base percentage. While the long ball has been his Achilles’ heel this year, the Nationals lack power at the top of their batting order, which works in favor of this bet.

Joan Adon, pitching for the Nationals, has shown improvement in his recent starts, throwing a scoreless first inning in three consecutive outings. Facing a righty-heavy Braves lineup can further boost his chances of achieving a fourth consecutive scoreless first inning.

Best MLB Prop Bets for Today, 9/30: Three Top Prop Picks

As the MLB regular season wraps up, we have a full slate of exciting games to close out September. With all 30 teams in action, there are numerous betting opportunities to explore. Here are three of my favorite prop bets for today.

MLB Pick: Crawford (Red Sox) over 4.5 strikeouts (-140)

Kutter Crawford stands out as one of the top plays for today’s games, with his strikeout total set at just 4.5. Crawford has worked both as a starter and reliever for the Boston Red Sox this season, and he’s currently in a starting role. In his last four starts this month, Crawford has thrown 96, 93, 84, and 93 pitches, recording 5, 7, 7, and 7 strikeouts, respectively. He has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 14 out of 15 games this season where he has thrown 74 or more pitches. Despite Boston being eliminated from playoff contention, Crawford is likely to have a long leash in this game.

Crawford features a 6-pitch arsenal, including a 4-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, splitter, sweeper, and a traditional slider. His 4-seamer alone has accounted for a significant portion of his strikeouts this season, with a 25.7% whiff rate and 23.5% put-away rate. Facing the Baltimore Orioles, who have struggled against right-handed 4-seam fastballs, Crawford has a good chance to reach 5 or more strikeouts.

MLB Pick: First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)

Despite laying -140 on a pitcher prop, there’s value in backing the Chicago Cubs against Eric Lauer of the Milwaukee Brewers. Lauer has had difficulties in the majors, particularly against right-handed batters, allowing a .311 batting average with an OPS of 1.012. The Cubs have been hitting left-handed pitching well, ranking 2nd in AVG, SLG, and wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days. With their lineup loaded with right-handed hitters, the Cubs are poised to exploit Lauer’s weaknesses.

MLB Pick: Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (-118)

Drew Rom, the starting pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, has struggled since joining the major leagues. Rom posted a 5.34 ERA with a high walk rate during his time with the Baltimore Orioles. The Reds, looking to secure a playoff spot, should be motivated to win. Rom has allowed 26 earned runs in 29.1 innings pitched for a 7.98 ERA in seven starts. The Reds, who have been performing well against left-handed pitching, should take advantage of Rom’s weaknesses. This bet spans all 9 innings, allowing the Reds to face the Cardinals’ vulnerable bullpen.

MLB Parlay for 09-30-23: Reds, Marlins, and a High-Scoring Cubs Game

If you’re seeking some action, consider our MLB parlay with enticing +1031 odds. Take a look at our MLB predictions for insights on every game today.

MLB Pick: -1.5 & Game Total Over 9.5 (+290)

The Cincinnati Reds delivered a resounding victory on Friday, defeating the Cardinals 19-2. With the Cardinals losing 8 of their last 10 games and the Reds pushing for a playoff spot, Cincinnati holds a significant advantage. Expect the Reds to contribute heavily to the over as they face Cardinals starter Drew Rom, who has struggled since joining the majors.

MLB Pick: ML & Game Total Under 9.5 (+190)

The Miami Marlins are playing exceptional baseball lately and can clinch a playoff spot with a win today. Their motivation to secure a postseason berth should drive them to victory. In their recent matchup against Pittsburgh, the Marlins secured their fourth win in five head-to-head games this season. The Marlins’ strong form and the Pirates’ struggles in scoring runs make the under an attractive choice.

In Conclusion

With

the MLB regular season nearing its conclusion, there’s plenty of action to bet on. Whether you prefer early-inning action or full-game prop bets, there are numerous opportunities to find value in today’s games. Explore our predictions and enjoy the excitement of the playoff race.

Disclaimer:

This is just my opinion. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling is risky and should only be done with money you can afford to lose.

Please note that odds and availability may change, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. Note: All bets should be made responsibly. The opinions and predictions provided are based on available data and are intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of sports betting. The decision to place bets or refrain from betting is solely the responsibility of the bettor. If you experience issues with gambling, please seek assistance.

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