NBA Best Bets Today 3/11/2024: Expert Picks & SGP Opportunity.

Step into the fresh week as we kick off Monday, March 11, with an exciting six-game lineup, featuring an NBA TV doubleheader. Our seasoned NBA betting experts are geared up and ready with seven top-notch NBA bets just for you.

In addition to the three Best Bets for this game, providing an opportunity for SGP on tonight’s games, we’ve got an array of NBA picks from Sunday, including three spread picks for the matchups between the Raptors and Nuggets, and the Mavericks versus the Bulls.

Find all the details on our NBA best bets for today right here.

NBA Odds, Best Bets Today

Expert NBA Best Bet Pick: Raptors +13.5

Watching the Raptors without Scottie Barnes hasn’t been easy. They’ve struggled, going 1-3 ATS since the talented young forward’s absence. Facing a road game in high altitude without their key player and starting center, Jakob Poeltl, plus RJ Barrett’s uncertain status, doesn’t bode well. It’s a tough situation for them.

But let’s shift focus to Denver. Before delving into the Nuggets’ current stance, let’s touch on the Raptors’ recent loss to the Blazers. Historically, teams that lose on the road against opponents with a win percentage below 30% and then become road underdogs have covered the spread at a rate of 56% since the 2018-19 season. The notion is that after a defeat to a notably weak team, there’s often a slight performance improvement, even as underdogs on the road in the subsequent game.

Now, onto Denver’s perspective: They’ve just navigated through a grueling post-All-Star schedule, capped with an impressive victory over the top-seeded Boston Celtics. They continued their momentum against the struggling Utah Jazz, establishing a commanding lead of up to 39 points on Saturday night. However, the Jazz staged a remarkable comeback in the third quarter, trimming the deficit to 15 points. Denver, despite becoming complacent, managed to maintain their lead and secure a 20-point victory.

Historically, under Michael Malone, the Nuggets have shown a tendency to falter after holding substantial leads of more than 25 points in the previous game, with a 39% ATS record. This suggests a potential letdown effect. Moreover, this season, Denver has struggled to cover the spread as double-digit favorites, posting a 5-6-1 record.

Considering the likelihood of a letdown from Denver and Toronto’s motivation following a disheartening loss to Portland, I’ll opt for the Raptors +13.5. My projection places this closer to 11.5.

Expert NBA Pick: Raptors +13.5

NBA Pick: Michael Porter Jr. to Score Over 16.5 Points

While this game may hold the potential for a blowout, one player I’m still eyeing is Michael Porter Jr.

MPJ has consistently been one of Denver’s primary scoring threats, boasting an average of 16.6 points per game this season. In the past 10 games, he’s been even hotter, averaging 20.1 points per game.

Facing the Raptors, who are without both Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, and with RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown, and Chris Boucher carrying questionable tags, the matchup favors MPJ significantly. Toronto lacks viable defenders to match up against him.

Tonight, his points line is set at 16.5, a mark he typically exceeds at home, especially in double-digit wins (Denver is a 14-point favorite). He has surpassed this line in 63% of home victories by 10 points or more, with an average of 18.3 points per game.

With expectations for the Nuggets to handle business against an undermanned Raptors squad, I anticipate MPJ to surpass the 16.5 points mark tonight.

Pick: Michael Porter Jr. to score over 16.5 points.

NBA Pick: Aaron Gordon to Record Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

Aaron Gordon is set to face the Raptors tonight, and I believe he’s poised for a strong performance.

Gordon’s matchup against a depleted Raptors squad, missing key players like Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes, with RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown, and Chris Boucher also carrying questionable tags, works in his favor.

While Gordon hasn’t been the epitome of consistency in betting terms, he has shown improvement recently, surpassing the 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) mark in eight of his last 11 outings. The Raptors’ interior defense, now lacking size and agility, struggles to consistently halt opponents. This sets the stage for a potentially explosive offensive display from Denver, with Gordon poised to benefit.

Expert NBA Pick: Aaron Gordon to record over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

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