NFL Expert Player Prop Bet Picks: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Thursday Night Football

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After a 207-day wait, the NFL has returned for the 2023-2024 season. The kickoff to this season features a thrilling Thursday Night Football matchup, with the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, hosting the highly anticipated Detroit Lions (+6.5). The clash between Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes is a familiar primetime spectacle, and their previous encounter resulted in one of the most memorable regular-season games ever, with the Rams edging out the Chiefs 54-51. When Goff was asked about that game last week, he eagerly welcomed the prospect of another shootout. As both teams enter Week 1, they’ve made significant changes to their offenses compared to the previous season. The Lions added rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs after trading D’Andre Swift to the Eagles, while the Chiefs reaffirmed their commitment to Patrick Mahomes and allowed Juju Smith-Schuster to depart in free agency. The total points line is set at 54.5, indicating an expected high-scoring affair. Here, we’ll delve into my top player prop bets for this exciting game.

Best Bets TNF Week 1

Before the kickoff, make sure to explore our NFL futures guide for all our futures picks!

NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+135)

Patrick Mahomes has demonstrated his mobility throughout his career, averaging 3.7 rushing attempts per game in the regular season. Facing the formidable Lions pass rush, it’s likely that pressure will force him out of the pocket, leading to scrambles for first downs. This becomes even more plausible given the relatively young and inexperienced WR corps that Mahomes has to work with in 2023. The line itself is favorable, considering it hit in 10 out of 17 games (58%) last year and in 4 out of 8 home games in the regular season. The attractive +135 odds represent a 40% implied probability, making this prop bet enticing. If rushing attempts are not available on your sportsbook, you can consider the alternative option of over 13.5 rushing yards. However, the true value lies in grabbing this bet at plus money. In 2022, the Lions allowed an average of 5.8 rush attempts to opposing QBs and saw this line hit in 10 out of 17 games (58%). All the statistics align in favor of the over, so don’t be swayed by excessive juice on the under. Mahomes has a history of gaining yards on the ground while ensuring his safety by getting out of bounds.

(1 unit wager recommended)

NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+135)

Patrick Mahomes has demonstrated his mobility throughout his career, averaging 3.7 rushing attempts per game in the regular season. Facing the formidable Lions pass rush, it’s likely that pressure will force him out of the pocket, leading to scrambles for first downs. This becomes even more plausible given the relatively young and inexperienced WR corps that Mahomes has to work with in 2023. The line itself is favorable, considering it hit in 10 out of 17 games (58%) last year and in 4 out of 8 home games in the regular season. The attractive +135 odds represent a 40% implied probability, making this prop bet enticing. If rushing attempts are not available on your sportsbook, you can consider the alternative option of over 13.5 rushing yards. However, the true value lies in grabbing this bet at plus money. In 2022, the Lions allowed an average of 5.8 rush attempts to opposing QBs and saw this line hit in 10 out of 17 games (58%). All the statistics align in favor of the over, so don’t be swayed by excessive juice on the under. Mahomes has a history of gaining yards on the ground while ensuring his safety by getting out of bounds.

(1 unit wager recommended)


Note: Betting odds and player statuses may change; it’s advisable to check the latest updates before placing your bets.

Disclaimer: Betting should be done responsibly. Please gamble responsibly and seek help if you have a gambling problem.

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