NFL Week 4 Player Prop Picks: Star Performers and Intriguing Matchups


Sunday brings us the much-anticipated London games, a tradition we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years, featuring a showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and the Jacksonville Jaguars. With four games on tap this Sunday boasting totals over 46.5, there’s plenty of intrigue, including Ezekiel Elliott, Calvin Ridley, and Adam Thielen facing their former teams. I’ve identified the Dolphins vs. Bills clash as my game of the week and pegged the Tennessee Titans (+2.5) as my upset of the week. Let’s delve into some player props.

NFL Pick: Juwan Johnson (NO) over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)

Juwan Johnson is set to reunite with his preferred quarterback, Jameis Winston, this week. A friendly reminder: Last season, with Winston under center, Johnson hit this receiving yards line in 2 out of 3 starts, averaging an impressive 12.1 yards per catch. While Johnson has seen over 70% of snaps in every game this season, he hasn’t enjoyed the same success with Derek Carr. Against a defense employing deep Cover 2, which allows for shorter and intermediate throws, Johnson is poised to thrive. I’m placing 1U on this prop.

NFL Pick: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) over 23.5 receiving yards (-110)

In a world filled with the likes of Luke Musgrave and Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid may be flying under the radar. The rookie first-round pick posted two solid starts, hauling in 9 receptions on 10 targets for 69 yards. Last week, in a game marred by inclement weather and a blowout against Washington, Kincaid was largely forgotten. However, he faces the red-hot Miami Dolphins this week, a team tied for the fifth-most receptions per game allowed to opposing tight ends (5.67). Realistically, this prop comes down to Kincaid securing 3 catches, a feat he accomplished in 2 out of 3 games to start the season. This is a 1.5U play in my book.

NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley (JAX) over 64.5 receiving yards (-110)

Here’s a familiar tune: I’m betting on Calvin Ridley once again. I’ve backed him every week, and I’m not stopping, especially when the lines dip below 68.5. Ridley boasts an impressive average of 13.3 yards per catch this season, and the Jaguars are putting in the effort to scheme him open and send him several deep shots per game. Oh, and did I mention he’s facing the Falcons, his former team? Yes, this matchup comes with a side of revenge for Ridley. While the Falcons’ defense may appear stout on paper, a closer look reveals it may be more matchup-dependent. Their early-season matchups against the struggling Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young have inflated their defensive stats. However, Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown found success against them with 9 catches for 100 yards. Ridley should be in for a similar outing. I’m wagering 1.5U on this prop.

NFL Pick: Logan Thomas (WAS) over 2.5 receptions (+135)

Logan Thomas is set to return after being sidelined with concussion symptoms in Week 3. Thomas, a big-bodied tight end, serves as a safety net for Sam Howell, who will likely need it as Washington enters this Sunday’s game as 8-point underdogs on the road. Thomas has hit this prop in 1 out of 2 games this season and saw 8 targets in Week 1, resulting in 4 receptions. In Week 2, Thomas was forced to exit the game early after taking a hit over the middle from Kareem Jackson, yet he still managed 2 catches on 3 targets in just 40% of the snaps. At +135, this prop offers excellent value for a game that could see Washington playing from behind. Given the limited data on Thomas’s performance in 2023, oddsmakers may still be figuring out how to handicap him. I’m placing 1U on this prop.


This is just my opinion. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling is risky and should only be done with money you can afford to lose.

Please note that odds and availability may change, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. Note: All bets should be made responsibly. The opinions and predictions provided are based on available data and are intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of sports betting. The decision to place bets or refrain from betting is solely the responsibility of the bettor. If you experience issues with gambling, please seek assistance.

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