The Ashes: 3rd Test Cricket Preview & Betting Tips

Welcome to The Bet Club and our England vs Australia Ashes Test Preview. The most anticipated Ashes Test series in recent times sees the Aussies with a 2-0 lead and the fever has reached boiling point after Alex Carey’s stumping in the second Test and now Australia are just one win away from their first series win on English soil since 2001!

It was arguably the most heated Lord’s Ashes Test match of all time when Australia picked up another nail-biting victory over England to lead the series 2-0. A controversial Starc catch given not out on review set the last day up to be tension filled, but then a stumping lead to a riled-up English team and crowd saw it boil over. This all making the third Test even more intriguing to see if England can bounce back.

As the Lord’s security dusts off the riot gear, this summer’s Ashes series moves quickly on to Headingley, the host of so many famous Ashes moments and a venue that is sure to give the Australian team a hostile, northern welcome on Thursday.

Close Fight

England can expect passionate home support in Leeds as they try to force their way back into a series that, though apparently slipping from their grasp, has seen them push the best team in the world hard throughout an absorbing contest thus far.

This remains a close fight between two talented sides, and England can certainly hit back in Leeds if they make improvements in certain areas. However, Australia’s is the World Test Champions for a reason, with all-round talent, depth in both bowling and batting with the necessary calmness in key moments to tip the odds in their favor. Let’s check out the teams and player odds.

Third Test Cricket Odds

Headingley, Wednesday 8pm AEST

  • ENGLAND: $2.38
  • DRAW: $5
  • AUSTRALIA: $2.20

Ashes 3rd Test Cricket Betting Tips / Picks

2nd Test Cricket Review

Alex Carey’s stumping of Jonny Bairstow was the main talking point out of the second Test. However, the 43-run victory was a just reward for the Australians who were in control for four of the five days across the Test.

Despite having the worst of the conditions after losing the toss and also losing Nathan Lyon early in the game, the Aussies managed to survive a magnificent Ben Stokes onslaught to secure another famous victory.

While Steve Smith (110), Travis Head (77), and David Warner (66) set up the game for Australia in the first innings, Australia’s bowling attack broke the game open after England were 1/188 in the first innings. Mitchell Starc (3/88), Josh Hazlewood (2/71), and Travis Head (2/17) helped the Aussies take 9/137 to give Australia a crucial 91-run lead.

After Stokes made a stunning 155 and put on partnerships of 132 with Ben Duckett and 108 with Stuart Broad, Australia looked in danger. However, Australia learned their lessons from Headingley 2019 to pick up the final four wickets for 26 runs to secure the victory.

Ben Stokes’ heroic 155 in the second innings rightfully took the headlines. However, Ben Duckett was England’s best batsman across the match with knocks of 98 and 83. Duckett’s contribution was crucial given Joe Root failed to pass 20 in both innings.

England’s BazBall tactics once again came to hurt them, with some ludicrous batting in the first innings that saw them give up a strong position, which was a major turning point in the Test.

England will rue failing to take advantage after winning the toss and bowling on a green deck on day one, in what was a timid bowling performance that gave Australia the upper hand. Josh Tongue (3/98 & 2/53) threatened across both innings, while Stuart Broad kept England in the game, taking 4/65 in the second innings.

The biggest concern for England is the form of James Anderson, who has figures of 3/226 across the first two Tests. If England is to mount a comeback in this series, they need Anderson to get back in form.

Cricket Australia

Australia will have to make one change after Nathan Lyon was ruled out of the remainder of the series with a calf injury, with youngster Todd Murphy set to take Lyon’s place. Murphy put together some strong performances in his debut series in India; however, he will be under a mountain of pressure in the Ashes spotlight.

The first images released late on Wednesday evening show a green pitch in Leeds, which may give some temptations to recall Scott Boland. Although Starc was expensive in the first innings, he has to retain his spot after taking six wickets for the match. Starc’s extra pace in comparison to the other Australian quicks proved crucial in wrapping up the tail at Lords, which was an area the Aussies struggled in the first Test.

Australia Predicted XI: David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Cameron Green, Alex Carey, Mitch Starc, Pat Cummins, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland

Cricket England

Ollie Pope will miss the rest of the series after a dislocated shoulder he suffered at Lords requires surgery. England haven’t named a replacement player in the squad, so it looks likely Dan Lawrence will come into the side at number three. Lawrence will fit into the BazBall style of batting; however, he hasn’t set the Test arena alight, averaging just 29 from eleven matches so far in his career.

Given the pitch looks to be green, it’s difficult to see England making any changes to the bowling attack. Joe Root proved more than serviceable and outperformed Moen Ali in the opening Test, so it’s expected Brendon McCullum will go with four seamers again.

England Predicted XI: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Dan Lawrence, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Ollie Robinson, Josh Tongue, Jimmy Anderson

Prop Cricket Bets: Crushing the Stumps

  • Mitchell Starc – 1st innings – Over 2.5 wickets: $1.91: Mitchell Starc’s call up to the side for Lord’s was a surprise, but he showed his worth, dominating with the ball to finish with three wickets in both innings. The speedy Aussie now has the most wickets by a left arm Aussie bowler in history – passing Mitchell Johnson – and his ability to swing the ball early and have the perfect yorker can clean up any batsmen.
  • Stuart Broad – Most England 1st innings wickets: $3.50: Stuart Broad is second all time for English Test wickets and continues to dominate for his country, leading the series wickets with 11 in the two matches so far. Complaining and visibly angry (sooking, as it were) with the Bairstow dismissal last Test, Broad will still be fired up and his ability to swing the ball both ways is extremely hard to make runs from. He is the best of the English bowlers and this is a solid bet.

Headingley Masterclass

  • Ben Stokes – 50+ 1st innings runs: $2.75: In his most famous batting innings of his career, Ben Stokes single-handedly belted England to a win last time the Ashes was played at Headingley in 2019, making 135 runs, including 11 fours and eight sixes and he is bringing hot form into this test which could pose ominous for Australia’s attack.. The usual short boundaries and slow paced wicket is perfect for when Stokes is in Bazball mode: as he showed last Test in scoring 155, his power when ‘on’ is unmatched. The English skipper is a star and averages 53 at Headingley across his career will be fired up after the controversy from the last Test. However, he has a knack of performing in the second innings, that may be the risk to this bet.
  • Smith standout for all conditions: We backed Smith last Test and watched him cruise to three figures at Lord’s, and the thing about these long series is that you can get a feel for players’ form and see how certain battles are developing. I see a few cracks appearing in Australia’s batting with Marnus, who is out of sorts and Head with the short ball – but nowhere near as many worries as England in that department – but not in Smith, who looks very solid. It was a real surprise to see him out hooking in the second innings. If that tactic is to become a theme of the series, I don’t envisage Smith falling into the trap of holing out too often. Smith’s patience is unrivaled, and I think his dismissal to the short ball last week will prove an anomaly in his series. Some bookies are dangling the carrot at 3/1 for Smith, and I think that’s big enough to warrant a bet, especially when you factor in that he’s best-equipped of the away batsmen to be successful if the clouds do roll in and batting becomes more difficult. The 11/4 generally available is also fine.

Who Wins?

Headingley will be at fever pitch on Thursday after a tense finish to the second Test, and it may provide a momentum shift in the series that England needs. Ben Stokes’ side has had it’s chances in both games but has just failed to provide the right decisions and killer punch when they’ve been in control.

Australia leads the series 2-0 and looks like the much more settled side, with its players and coaches concentrating on the series and remaining calm in key moments, rather than sulking and complaining incessantly to the media. We expect this to be the key, and Australia will withstand the heat, likely bodyline tactics and see a great Test Cricket team succeed over Bazball.

Although Nathan Lyon is a huge out for the Aussies, Todd Murphy is a handy replacement, as he displayed in India with 14 wickets in just four Tests. The overall batting depth of Australia looks to be too strong over 5 days for England – with now even David Warner looking confident. Marnus has been out of touch, despite getting touches but averages 70 on this ground, and that is dangerous for England when added to inform Khawaja, Smith, Head, and Carey.

Australia also has a quicker, more consistent bowling attack, and if the wicket is green and seems, then Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood will be a handful for Bazball.

With their backs to the wall, England will double down on BazBall to try and keep the series alive, but Australia is too good, and we predict 3 Nil and Ashes returns to Australia.

Our Best Bet Pick: Australia H2H

Cricket Parlay Picks

There are a number of good best bet pick options detailed above to form a Parlay. We would lead with Australia win, it is hard to go past Smith first innings run scorer, and one or both of Mitch Starc and Stuart Broad who both look likely in these conditions. Good luck and happy punting.

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