Week 1 NFL Player Prop Picks: Stars to Shine and Hyped Rookies Struggle


The excitement of NFL Week 1 is here, and it’s the perfect time to dive into player prop bet predictions. Early in the season, sportsbooks make assumptions about new players, coaches, and situations, offering a window of opportunity for savvy bettors.

NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 1

As we embark on the NFL season, these player prop picks offer enticing opportunities for Week 1 action. Enjoy the games and best of luck with your wagers! However, remember not to go overboard in Week 1; it’s a long season, and a measured approach is key. Now, let’s explore The Bet Club’s Week 1 player prop picks.

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NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley (JAX) over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Calvin Ridley enters the season with high expectations, stepping into a WR1 role on a playoff-caliber team with a rising QB. What sets him apart is his injury-free status, making his situation unique. While this line might be the lowest we’ll see all season for Ridley, it’s an opportunity we can’t pass up. Although we lack benchmarks for Ridley in Jacksonville, let’s analyze what we do know. He boasts a career average of 13.5 yards per reception and has surpassed the 57.5-yard mark in 60% of his career starts (21 out of 35). I anticipate Ridley receiving nine targets this Sunday, which is where it gets intriguing. When he’s seen nine or more targets in his career, he averages 94.7 yards per game and has cleared this line in 84% of those games (16 out of 19). With the Colts’ secondary vulnerabilities, we’re starting the season with a confident 2-unit play.

NFL Pick: Kenny Pickett (PIT) under 212.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Kenny Pickett garnered substantial offseason hype, fueled by an impressive preseason performance. However, let’s not forget that he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt last season, ranking 33rd among qualified QBs in the NFL. In Week 1, he faces the San Francisco 49ers, boasting a top-three defense. The 49ers excelled in Opponent Yards Per Attempt (6.3), and their defense is primed to swarm from the outset. Even if DPOY Nick Bosa is absent, the 49ers’ front seven remains formidable. Forcing Pickett into third-and-long situations will be pivotal, as he held a 30% completion rate on third-and-five or longer. Preseason success should be taken with a grain of salt, as coaches deploy vanilla defenses and mix backup players with starters. This line initially opened at 201.5 and has since risen to 212.5, aligning with our under projection. With the 49ers controlling time of possession and Pickett likely relying on short passes, we’re backing the under with a 1-unit wager.

NFL Pick: Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Longest Rush over 15.5 Yards (-110)

To put it plainly, Kenneth Walker III has consistently surpassed this line, doing so in both games against the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 and in 9 out of 17 games last season. While he’s competing with rookie Zach Charbonnett, Walker remains the lead back for now. The Rams’ defensive line starts a rookie at DT in Week 1 and lost both starting DTs from the previous season in free agency. This defensive line may struggle throughout the season and could end up among the league’s bottom five. In this Week 1 divisional matchup, if it turns into a blowout, Walker could see over 16 carries. When he receives such a workload, Walker has surpassed this line in six out of seven games. We’re placing a 0.5-unit bet on Walker’s explosiveness.

NFL Pick: Nick Chubb (CLE) over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Nick Chubb may be facing a line movement, but we’re drawing the line at 73.5 yards. Chubb boasts a career average of 5 yards per carry and has surpassed this mark in 6 out of 9 games against Cincinnati. Despite the arrival of Deshaun Watson, Chubb continued to exceed this line in 5 out of 6 games with Watson as the starter. In this small sample, Chubb averaged 17 attempts and 4.9 yards per carry, projecting him safely above the 80-yard mark. The Cleveland Browns have shifted away from Kareem Hunt as the RB2, relying more on Elijah Moore in a Deebo Samuel role. However, the backfield remains Chubb’s domain. Our projection places him at 17 carries for 83 yards this Sunday, making this prop a confident 1-unit play.

Please note that odds and availability may change, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. Note: All bets should be made responsibly. The opinions and predictions provided are based on available data and are intended to enhance your understanding and enjoyment of sports betting. The decision to place bets or refrain from betting is solely the responsibility of the bettor. If you experience issues with gambling, please seek assistance.

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